Key Judgements:
In the next five years, Australia and China are likely to have a more negative relationship due to reduced incentives to economically integrate and increased visibility of barriers to political cohesion. Today, Australia-China relations may appear to be rebounding due to seemingly recovering economic integration and diplomatic engagement. However, the long term economic outlook is uncertain. Additionally, political and security differences will impede further relations. Indicators of this downward trajectory include:
While the economies of each nation are tied together, the trade war initiated by China forced Australia to diversify its trading partners - therefore providing an opportunity for Australia to decouple and be less dependent
Australia’s military dialogues and engagements with partners like the U.S. signal a long-term vision to counter threats to their security, which includes Chinese initiatives to expand its security presence in the region.
Diplomatic engagement, though increasing, is surface level. It will not be enough to overcome security differences and contrasting political values.
This assessment explores these trends more closely to determine whether Australian and Chinese relations are indeed on the decline, and the major factors that will drive the relationship in the future.Click here to enter text.
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